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China Securities Brokerage:More emerging growth drivers

类型:行业研究  机构:京华山一国际(香港)有限公司   研究员:京华山一国际研究所  日期:2015-06-29
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Catalyst.

    Accelerated initial public offerings. In April, CSRC announced toapprove IPOs twice a month compared to one batch per monthbefore. However, we think it is only the beginning and the Chinesegovernment will take advantage of the bullish stock marketto channel funding to cash-strapped businesses. We expect thatbooming IPO trend will continue and the IPO proceeds will amountto RMB 250 bn in 2015 compared to RMB 67 bn in 2014.

    Equity underwriting revenues to soar on stock market rally. Ourmodel indicates the average monthly proceeds of public equityfinancing to market cap ratio is around 0.4% from mid-2006 to theend of 2007, compared to an average of 0.18% for the first fivemonths of this year. So, we believe the ratio will go up to 0.4% bythe end of 2015 and the monthly proceeds of public equity financingwill increase to RMB 300 bn, a 119% increase yoy.

    Asset securitization in spotlight under favorable policies. Since2014, the Chinese government implemented a lot of policies toencourage domestic businesses to utilize ABS to finance theirgrowth. In 2014, total new issuance of ABS grew by more than10-fold to RMB326 bn from 2013. We expect the issuance of ABSwill be one of the major channels for enterprises in China to acquirethe funding they need in the near future.

    Our view.

    Although China’s A-share markets experienced a pullback, weare convinced that it is just a short-term correction and believe theA-share markets are still trending up with rising turnover. With thatsaid, rising turnover, coupled with soaring number of public equityofferings and issuances of ABS, will tremendously boostthe commission and underwriting revenues of the brokerageindustry. In our opinion, we think the full-service industry leaders,such as CITIC Securities (600030 CH/ 6030 HK), GF Securities(000776 CH/ 1776 HK), and Haitong Securities (600837 CH/6837 HK), will benefit the most. They ranked the first, the fifth,and the eighth respectively by IPO underwriting proceeds in 2014.

    Among the leaders, we prefer CITIC Securities over the others dueto its superior leadership in the investment banking area. Also, itsrelatively high beta means higher appeal in bull market.

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