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Container Shipping Sector:Weekly container shipping commentary

类型:行业研究  机构:交银国际证券有限公司   研究员:交银国际证券研究所  日期:2016-04-05
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News flow - Maersk remains cautious on 2016. The FY15 result of Maersk, the world’s largest container shipping operator, was lower than the market expectation as well as its most recent forecast. Faster-than-expected deterioration of freight rate in 4Q15 was largely responsible for the loss during the quarter, according to management. The outlook for 2016 is also unexciting, according to Maersk, though there are possible patches of improvement, such as the Asia-Europe tradelane due to inventory replenishment. The CEO of Maersk also commented that the current global container shipping alliance structure is in a flux because of the recent merger transactions. While shipping alliance is helpful in coordinating capacity among participating carriers, Maersk believes that cooperation among container shipping lines should move beyond simple alliance structure if the industry wants to restore healthy profitability ahead.

    Reality - The SCFI rebounded on the back of Asia-Europe freight rate recovery. Reversing the trend of adding more capacity since the end of the Lunar New Year, container shipping companies pulled capacity so that spot freight rate bottomed out from its year-low of US$205/TEU on the Asia-Europe tradelane for the week ended 25th March 2016 to reach US$247/TEU. Nevertheless, as container shipping carriers did not pull capacity from the Transpacific tradelane at the same time, spot freight rate on the Transpacific tradelane weakened further, down 1.7% WoW to US$748/FEU for the week ended 25th March 2016. According to www.chineseshipping.com, due to the poor financial performance, Hanjing Shipping is considering sales of assets, including office buildings and domestic container terminals in South Korea, in order to reduce its heavy gearing. SCFI gained 4.5% WoW.

    We maintain our MARKET PERFORM recommendation. As a continuation of the weak 4Q15 performance, the container shipping companies in general experienced a tough quarter during the first three months of 2016. In the near term, in view of the weak freight rate environment, carriers may be more willing to cooperate to restore freight rate to a better level ahead. Meanwhile, without strong share price catalyst, we maintain our MARKET PERFORM recommendation for the sector.

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