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UK sends global markets tumbling with Brexit vote:No Brexit doomsday on the doorstep,but leave vote

类型:宏观经济  机构:招商证券(香港)有限公司   研究员:招商证券(香港)研究所  日期:2016-07-05
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Comment:The results of the UK referendum sent shockwaves through global markets, as complacentmarkets underpriced the risk of a Brexit despite warning signs seen in earlier polls. TheBrexit referendum likely marked a crossroads with regards to global risk. With the Brexitdecision, external risks are likely to intensify moving forward.

    Firstly, there is the direct economic impact of a Brexit. While estimates for the impact of aBrexit vary significantly based off assumptions, most see a negative economic impact; thedegree of the impact will likely depend on the success or failure of renegotiating trade andinvestment deals. There are two main schools of thought: 1) UK will successfully renegotiatedeals with EU as it is a significant trade partner, and 2) EU will play negotiations toughdespite trade ties to make a Brexit painful and discourage others from following in the samefootsteps. Based off the behavior of Germany in previous negotiations with Greece, we seehigher odds for the latter option. While we see little impact (slight downgrade between 0.1-0.4% of 2016-2017 GDP) on the GDP outlook for the next two years, after a Brexit takesplace the impact on GDP growth may be significant.

    Secondly, the political fallout may be the biggest long term concern, as a Brexit marks asignificant shift away from unifying countries toward increased division. While it is importantto avoid overanalyzing one individual decision, a Brexit may be the harbinger of a moreprotectionist and less integrated world, and a potential unwinding of the dividends fromglobalization. At the most obvious level, the Brexit decision will prompt other disgruntledEuropean countries to consider a referendum to leave; this potentially threatens the structureof Europe itself. The result also marks the latest event in a rising wave of populism globally,and may be a factor in elections ahead, with the most important being the US election inNovember feature Donald Trump as the “populist” candidate.

    Thirdly, the market impact was significantly negative due to the huge wave of uncertainty.

    Equity markets and the GBP fell sharply after the announcement, and the spillover effect onthe USD also led to a drop of the RMB. While some level of uncertainty will likely persist asthe details are fleshed out, some short covering and policymakers statements may stabilizemarkets next week. With the Brexit result, external risks are likely to remain significant in themedium term, and short term risks for the market remain balanced to the downside.

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