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Markets Overview

类型:投资策略  机构:大华银行有限公司   研究员:大华银行研究所  日期:2016-08-03
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Australia, Switzerland and Canada markets will be closed onMonday for their respective national holidays.

    The US receives a greater flow of data for the week ahead.

    Beginning on Monday, the Markit US manufacturing PMIfor June, June’s construction spending, as well as ISMmanufacturing releases for July will be released. On Tuesday,markets receive personal income/spending for June andvehicle sales data for July. On Wednesday, the focus will beon the ADP employment estimate for July, alongside MarkitUS services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing releases forJuly. On Thursday, the usual weekly initial jobless claimsfor the week ending 30 July will be rolled out, together withfactory orders data for June. Finishing off the week, marketsreceive trade balance data for June, but all eyes will be onthe highlight of the week - the latest employment situationwhere we are expecting a non-farm payrolls increase of 200kjobs in July, against consensus of 175k. That said, if we getanother monster print like June’s 287k, then expectationsfor the September FOMC will become “more live”. Theunemployment rate should stay unchanged at 4.9%.

    Consumer credit data for June will also be due. Last but notleast, the US 2Q earnings reports calendar will continue tobe important this week as we will have pharmaceuticals,media giants, consumer-products conglomerates and oilcompanies reporting this week.

    This is a quieter week for the Eurozone. We will see final Julymanufacturing PMIs on Monday, followed by service andcomposite numbers on Wednesday. Eurozone retail sales aswell as PPI data, both for June, are also due. At the nationallevel, the highlights include Germany’s manufacturingorders and France’s trade figures. The preface of the ECB’supdated economic bulletin should echo the generally dovishsentiments expressed by ECB President Mario Draghi at hisJuly governing council press conference.

    In the UK, final readings of the manufacturing and servicessector PMIs should be confirmed at their preliminaryestimates whilst new information on the July constructionPMI is likely to show a deeper contraction in activity. Ofinterest this week will also be on the July Halifax house pricereport as well as the July BRC shop price index.

    The BoJ stuck with the status quo and plans to compilea ‘comprehensive assessment’ for the next interest-ratedecision on 21 September. Even though it kept the dooropen to further embark on its easing cycle, central bankofficials appear to be in no rush to implement more nonstandardmeasures as they continue to assess the impact of the negative-interest rate policy (NIRP), and BoJ GovernorHaruhiko Kuroda may make additional attempts to buy moretime especially as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledges tounveil a ‘bold’ fiscal stimulus package to assist the ailingeconomy. With that said, there is no major data due in Japanthis week, though the economic stimulus package is due tobe approved by cabinet on Tuesday.

    In Australia, the data highlights include June trade andbuilding approvals data on Tuesday, followed by June retailsales on Thursday. New Zealand markets have a dairyauction to watch on Tuesday, whilst 2Q employment datawill be released on Wednesday.

    Other than potentially the market moving events fromRBA meeting (Tue), BOE (Thur) and US nonfarm payroll(Fri), this week’s data calendar in Asia is also relativelybusy as the beginning of the new month will see releases ofmanufacturing and services PMI reports for Jul across theregion starting from Mon. In addition, Thai central bank ratedecision is also scheduled for Wed (3 Aug) and Indonesia’s2Q GDP report will be released sometime on or after Fri (5Aug). Inflation reports for Jul will also be out for Indonesia,Thailand (both Mon), South Korea (Tue), Philippines andTaiwan (both Fri). External trade reports will also be duefrom South Korea (for Jul, Mon) and Malaysia (for Jun, Fri).

    Kicking off Asian data releases today (Mon, 1 Aug) is SouthKorea’s external trade reports for July early in the morning.

    South Korea exports fell a larger than expected -10.2%y/y inJul from -2.7% in Jun, while imports plunged a further -14%y/y from -8% in Jun, suggesting that outlook for global externaltrade remains pessimistic in the second half of 2016.

    Following that China’s July manufacturing PMI will be due9am Mon, with poll looking for 50.0, same as June reading.

    China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI is due later at 945am,which is seen rising slightly at 48.8 vs 48.6 in June. Later inthe morning, manufacturing PMI reports for July will crossthe wires from Taiwan (10am), Indonesia (11am), Malaysia(1130am), and India (1pm). CPI reports for July fromIndonesia and Thailand will be out sometime today.

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