Weekly Outlook

The key US data event is Friday’s (5 Aug) July US Labor Report - including the widely watched nonfarm payrolls (NFP). We think the NFP is likely to add 200,000 jobs in July, while the median forecast is lower at 175,000, according to the latest Bloomberg forecasts (as of 28 July). That said, if we get another monster print like June’s 287k, then expectations for Sep FOMC will become “more live”. The US unemployment rate should stay unchanged at 4.9% in July. Ahead of the US labor data, the monetary policy decision by the Bank of England (4 Aug) will be the market focus with the BOE almost certain to be cutting rates by at least 25bps and likely to re-introduce another QE programme and even offer ultra-cheap loans to banks. The US 2Q earnings reports calendar will continue to be important this week as we will have pharmaceuticals, media giants, consumer-products conglomerates and oil companies reporting this week. Two senior Fed Reserve officials will speak in public forums in Asia this week: New York Fed President, William Dudley (permanent FOMC voter) in Bali, Indonesia (1 Aug) and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan (non-voter in 2016 FOMC) in China (Beijing on 2 Aug and Shanghai on 4 Aug). Switzerland, Australia and Canada markets will be closed on Monday (1 Aug) for their respective national holidays.