设正点财经为首页     加入收藏
首 页 财经新闻 主力数据 财经视频 研究报告 证券软件 内参传闻 股市学院 指标公式
你的位置: > 正点财经 > 研究报告 > 正文

Deep Dive:Housing Starts Still a positive

类型:投资策略  机构:麦格理证券股份有限公司   研究员:麦格理证券研究所  日期:2016-11-09
http://www.zdcj.net      点击收藏此报告
    

10% September housing starts was an encouraging lift after low 2.5% growth inAugust. Starts are up 6% YTD. We are not surprised by continued strengthconsidering the low finance costs for owner occupied homes and the continuedstrategy by wealthy individuals of using rental units to shelter inheritance tax.

    Recent data points such as April-September Daito Trust orders up 10.5%, or12% 3MMA detached home orders at Daiwa House and 12% 3MMA spec homeorders at Sekisui House are consistent with strong starts in October. The lack ofany pending increase in consumption tax allows us to say that current rates ofgrowth reflect a more “real” level of demand. If current trends continue, annualstarts should reach around 950k for calendar 2016. Pre GFC, starts ranged 1.2-1.3m, dropping to ~700k after GFC. After growing 6% in 2016, at current GDPgrowth estimates we would expect low-single-digit growth of 2-3% in 2017.

相关报告:
热点推荐:
更多最新研究报告
更多财经新闻
  • 如果不能阅读报告,请点击下载阅读器
关于我们 | 商务合作 | 联系投稿 | 联系删稿 | 合作伙伴 | 法律声明 | 网站地图