Dim Sum Express

Macro: Risk reduced by property soft landing; economic recovery to end in 2Q17

    Property sales growth is likely to weaken further in the coming few months on mortgage lending restrictions, with YoY growth to bottom in March-April. Similarly, auto sales growth should also come down gradually. The impact of these two factors might be seen in 2Q17, at which point the downward pressure on industrial production and economic growth should increase, putting an end to the ongoing economic recovery. That said, rebounding manufacturing and private investment growth, retail sales growth driven by higher inflation, and further recoveries in global trade and shipping activities might offset the downward pressure, making a severe economic slowdown less likely to be seen.

    Environmental: Watch environmental monitoring subsector given 13th FYP issuance

    The implementation of the newly issued action plans for the prevention and treatment of air, water and soil pollution will be assessed during the 13th FYP period, while an environmental tax law and emission rights trading mechanism are yet to be established: these will be dependent on the development of environmental monitoring systems. The MEP is soliciting public opinions on administrative rules for polluted land management, which not only provide further details on initiatives put forward in the “Soil Ten Rules”, but also pave the way for upcoming legislation for soil pollution prevention and treatment.