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China Ports:Nov throughput +5%yoy;CMH in talks to acquire another Sri Lanka port

类型:宏观经济  机构:高盛高华证券有限责任公司   研究员:高盛高华证券研究所  日期:2016-12-13
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Nov volume +5% yoy; sequential trade pickup unlikely to sustainAccording to Chineseport.cn, China’s container port throughput grew 5% yoyin Nov, same as in Oct. While the breakdown of international and domesticvolume is not yet available, China export/import data point to a strongmonth for international volume (Rmb-denominated export +6% yoy in Novvs. -3% in Oct; import +13% in Nov vs. +3% in Nov). Our Macro teamattributes this to: (1) the strength in export resulting from favorable externaldemand with global PMIs in both DM/EM improving, and (2) the strength inimport resulting from volume pickup of certain goods, particularly auto/autoparts and medical goods, also reflecting strength in FAI. They do not expectthe sequential trade growth to sustain in the next few months.

    By region, port volume in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) grew +8% yoy in Nov,similar to 7% in Oct. Pearl River Delta (PRD)’s grew 6% yoy, an improvementfrom 3% in Oct, as Shenzhen’s volume picked up to +5% yoy in Nov from -4% in Oct likely driven by stronger US/EU trades (+9%/+8% yoy in Nov vs. -6%/-5% in Oct), which represent ~50% of Shenzhen’s volume, offset by weaktransshipment volume as HPHT flagged previously. Bohai Rim’s volumeweakened to -1% yoy from 3% in Oct and 10M16, likely suggesting softerdomestic demand, which represents 40%-50% of its volume.

    Pessimism for global trade priced in; policy risk to HK portOn Dec 8, The Wall Street Journal reported that CMH (144.HK, Buy) is indiscussion to acquire an 80% stake in Hambantota Port from Sri Lankagov’t for US$1.1bn. The port is located at south Sri Lanka, 240km awayfrom Colombo Port which CMH already has an 85% stake. Phase 1 wascompleted in 2011 with 6mn TEU annual capacity, which is expected toexpand to 23mn by 2022 upon the completion of Phase 2-4, as per thereport. If the report were to be true (as CMH has not made any relatedannouncement), we see the discussion as in line with the group’s M&Astrategy along “One Road One Belt”. Together with the QianhaiwanGarden property project it acquired earlier, we estimate CMH’s net debt toequity would rise to 40% from 23% at 1H16 (if the acquisition completesbased on the reported consideration), back to the level before its issuanceof Mandatory Convertible Securities in 2014. While port stocks may remainvolatile on macro/policy uncertainties near term (e.g., trade policy after USelection), we still believe the market has priced in much pessimism and nopotential upside from M&As for CMH and COSCO (both Buy), trading at0.8/0.6x 17E P/B (close to sector trough of 0.6x. Recently proposed changeto cabotage regulation, if passed, could present downside risk to portvolume in HK, representing half of HPHT’s profit.

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