设正点财经为首页     加入收藏
首 页 财经新闻 主力数据 财经视频 研究报告 证券软件 内参传闻 股市学院 指标公式
你的位置: > 正点财经 > 研究报告 > 正文

Market Snapshot:Southbound trading monitor

类型:投资策略  机构:广发证券(香港)经纪有限公司   研究员:广发证券(香港)研究所  日期:2017-01-04
http://www.zdcj.net      点击收藏此报告
    

Southbound trading has increased ahead of official launch of the SZ-HK Connect Mainland investor interest in the Hong Kong market increased again in Nov after a temporary decline in Oct. Daily turnover rose in the last few days of Nov after the Nov 25 announcement that the scheme will commence on Dec 5. Average daily turnover (ADT) for the Hong Kong market was up 10% MoM to about HK$67bn in Nov, while ADT of southbound trading increased 19% MoM to HK$4,588m in Nov, representing 6.8% of total ADT in the Hong Kong market, up from 6.4% in Oct. Net buying up significantly despite HSI decline Average daily southbound net buying (average daily buy trades minus average daily sell trades) increased 196% MoM to HK$875m in Nov, while total net buying jumped 364% to HK$19.24bn during the month, up from HK$4.14bn in Oct. This indicates that mainland capital is chasing Hong Kong stocks, especially H-shares, as the HSCEI index rose 2.9% in Nov while the HSI dropped 0.6%. Southbound trading turnover consistently higher than northbound trading In Nov, southbound turnover was 1.07x northbound turnover, similar to that in Oct, making it the fourth straight month where southbound trading has outstripped northbound trading. Southbound interest returns to financials Among the top-ten actively traded stocks in Nov, five were financials, compared with just three in Oct. Geely Auto (175 HK, Accumulate) and China Unicom (762 HK, NR) entered the top-ten again in Nov, as Geely continued to report strong sales while investors have high hopes for China Unicom’s parent’s mixed ownership scheme. Again, southbound buying is no guarantee of share price performance, as five of the top-ten most actively traded companies have seen their share prices go in the opposite direction with net buying/selling. A/H premium keeps rising but further upside may be limited As expected, the A/H premium increased further, hitting 126.8 in mid-Nov before ending at 123.3 on Nov 30 (vs 122.72 on Oct 31) as the Hong Kong market was hampered by global headwinds while the A-share market edged up further. We believe the A/H premium will ease as increasing price differentials will ultimately attract more southbound trades. Southbound trading to mitigate capital outflow With the launch of the Shenzhen Hong Kong Stock Connect, there are 102 newly eligible stocks available, of which 38% are new economy sectors (including new energy and environmental protection, TMT and healthcare). While we believe these sectors will see strong southbound demand, their turnover contribution will be relatively small as most are small/mid-cap stocks. We expect southbound trading from Shenzhen to grow just gradually in the first few months, as investors need time to familiarize themselves with the new trading system, but this will increase rapidly later on. Given the strong US dollar and rising bond yields after Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, we believe the scale of southbound trading will be a determinant factor in mitigating capital outflow.

相关报告:
热点推荐:
更多最新研究报告
更多财经新闻
  • 如果不能阅读报告,请点击下载阅读器
关于我们 | 商务合作 | 联系投稿 | 联系删稿 | 合作伙伴 | 法律声明 | 网站地图