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Yili Alert:DB Access China conference highlights

类型:公司研究  机构:德意志银行   研究员:Mark Yuan,Charlie Chen  日期:2017-01-18
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Sales growth to improve in 2017

    Yili attended DB Access China conference this week. Investors’ interest mainlyfocused on its promotion/marketing plan in 2017, impact of raw material costincrease, and new products in next few years. Management expects salesgrowth in 2017 to be better than 2016, helped by improving industryenvironment, high-end product growth, and lower base after splitting upYouran Dairy farm in 2016. It targets a double digit for high-end UHT “Satine”and 20-30% yoy growth for UHT yoghurt “Ambosial”.

    Liquid milk: expecting less price discount

    Management believes industry competition could ease down in 2017, as rawmilk cost is bottoming up and small industry players should reduce pricediscount. Meanwhile, higher consolidation level after recent industry’s M&A(i.e. Shengmu and China Modern Dairy) will help to reduce price competition.The management expects to allocate more budget on advertisement forbranding, while reduce low efficient price promotion.

    Infant formula (“IMF”): intensive competition likely continues in near-term

    Management expects intensive industry competition to continue in the IMFsector, as it think the benefit of higher consolidation is unlikely to emergebefore Jan 1, 2018 when the new regulation takes effect. Yet the company stillexpects some recovery for its IMF sales, helped by its increasing penetration inbaby stores channel and e-commerce channel, and a cleaner channel stockingcurrently compared to 2016.

    4Q16: sales growth to be similar as 9M16

    The management expects its sales growth in 4Q16 to be similar as 9M16, i.eflattish or slightly growth. By category, retail sales of “Satine” grew by 10%and “Ambosia” grew by 100% according to AC Nilesen, but this is partly offsetby a sales decline in kids’ milk and milk beverage. Yili’s market share in roomtemperature products, low-temp, and IMF all increased slightly to 33%, 16%and 6.0% in 4Q16 from 31.8%, 15.6%, and 5.7% in 3Q16.

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