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Consumer Discretionary:Focus on Key Themes;Cherry Picking in 2017

类型:行业研究  机构:国信证券(香港)金融控股有限公司   研究员:国信证券(香港)研究所  日期:2017-01-20
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Invest in Education sector in ChinaWe continue to see education sector in China as an investment opportunity in2017, riding on the shortage of public pre schools, relatively low spending inChina’s education sector vs international countries such as Denmark and UnitedKingdom etc. We also see potential higher demand in international schools whereChinese students studied abroad has tripled since 2004. The increasing IPO fromschool operators in China could further drive the sector’s valuation.

    Booming international travels as investment themeInternational tourists have hit record of 1.2bn in 2015, which has doubled since1995 as compared to 527mn international tourist’s arrivals. We expect with thecontinued growth in tourism including travel facilitation, international touristscould hit 1.8bn into 2020, which is approximately 1.5 times larger than current. Webelieve the booming international travels could help on global luggage marketfrom increasing tourist’s traffic.

    Start to pay attention to HK Jewelleries retailersAfter 10 consecutive quarters of negative SSSG since 4QFY14, we expect HKjewelleries retailers set to announce improving SSSG from 3QFY17F onwards,. Thisis driven by easier base, improving mainland tourist’s arrivals numbers to HongKong, traditional peak seasons for marriage and Chinese New Year in 1Q17 andincreasing gold price (ASP). Along with high dividend yield offered across sector,we reckon that risk reward profile looks attractive at current level.

    Sportswear continue its momentumWe expect both large HK/China sportswear players Li Ning and Anta to announcestrong 4Q16 earnings, driven by strong set of SSSG from e-commerce channels,increasing volume, diversifying brand portfolio and lower base from colderweather as compared to 2015. The lower retail discount rate should further aid onthe margin expansion. On a longer term prospective, we expect the Chinese sportsindustry’s revenue set to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% from2016 to 2020F, on rising health awareness and sports participation rates.

    Our Stocks PickWithin small/mid cap space in consumer sector, we like both Maple Leaf Educationand Man Wah. However, among mid-large cap space, we prefer Samsonite.

    Turning to sportswear side, we initiate our coverage on both Li Ning and Anta with‘Buy’ rating, having the former with the most share price upside as our sub-sectortop pick. As for jewelry retailers, we initiate coverage on Luk Fook with ‘Buy’ call onimproving SSSG in 2HFY17, while Chow Tai Fook with ‘Neutral’ for its rich valuation.

    In addition, we also initiate our coverage on Belle with ‘Neutral’ holding.

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