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Alibaba Alert-Dec Q preview:up-and-to-the-right

类型:公司研究  机构:德意志银行   研究员:Alan Hellawell  日期:2017-01-23
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This feels all-too familiar: lifting FY17 revenue growth back to 51%Interviews with large brands and digital ad agencies lead us to lift FY17 revgrowth back to 51%; a level we last envisioned back in late-summer.

    Management sounded clearly constructive in mid-Dec meetings. Strongmonetization of e-commerce continues to deliver operating leverage, partiallyoffset by spend on content, regional expansion, rural Taobao and FMCG. Cloudrevenue should see triple digit growth (DBe +120% YoY). We expect Dec Qrevenue of RMB49.9bn, +45% YoY, in-line with consensus; We assume non-GAAP EBITDA margin of 46.7%, and net margin of 37.4%, with upside risk.

    Commission revenue growth likely to reaccelerate; the Intime bumpMuch of BABA’s 4Q weakness owed to currency & interest rate pressures andother exogenous issues. These factors could continue to depress share price.

    Fundamentals meanwhile remain sound: DBe Tmall blended take rate dippedin Sep Q on category shift (apparel and virtual items), driving a slowing incommission growth. This trend should reverse in Dec Q as a one-off seasonalchange for apparel passes. Apparel sales on Tmall should re-accelerate, drivingbetter commission revenue. The telco initiative to in-house mobile top-up andprepaid card distribution meanwhile should suppress low-commission virtualitem sales. We meanwhile assume the Intime investment, while applyingmargin pressure, could drive FY18 revs to well above consensus.

    Cloud close to breakeven; market share, not margin, the priorityAlibaba seems confident in achieving triple digit growth in the Dec Q aided byprice cuts in Oct. We expect 120% YoY Dec growth. Many of AliCloud’s651,000 paying customers come from word of mouth. The company continuesto build out a business development team for future customer base growth.

    AliCloud booked a -4% non-GAAP EBITDA margin in Sep Q. Given its focus onmarket share expansion to profitability, we expect continued reinvestment.

    Youku fully back on-line; content spend likely to grow sharplyWe believe post-merger integration work around Youku to be largely complete.

    We expect BABA to increase content spend on Youku in the upcoming year,pressuring the P&L’s of competitors. The company recently signed a deal withDreamWorks around animation streaming, and also claimed an intendedRMB50b 3-year investment plan in the digital entertainment segment.

    Raising TP by 3% to US$140; Maintain as top-pickWe lift FY17/18/19 revenue by 2%/2%/2% and non-GAAP profit by 2%/2%/2%.

    Our TP of US$140 is based on SOTP: 1) 33x CY17E P/E for e-commerce; 2) 8xCY17E EV/Sales for AliCloud; 3) 29x CY2017E EV/EBITDA for Ant’s paymentand WM business, and 5.5x CY2017E P/BV for the loan and insurancebusiness. 4) Cainiao valuation on latest capital raise; 5) Net cash excludingAliCloud. Risks: slower revenue and user growth; intensifying competition.

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