DB Today -Global/Macro:Tuesday,7th February 2017
Global Strategy - The House View - Marcos AranaMore than two weeks removed from President Trump’s Inauguration, politicsand policy remain key market drivers. We continue to believe that Trump’svictory has the potential of being a positive regime change for the economy andmarkets. Tax cuts and deregulation are expected to jolt the economy toward abetter long-term equilibrium of higher growth, inflation and interest rates. Butthis regime change also brings a greater degree of policy uncertainty. Details onpage 07Europe Strategy - European Equity Strategy - Thomas PearceThe China trade has been the winning trade in the European equity market overthe past year. There were widespread concerns about downside risks for Chinamacro at the start of 2016 (given capital outflows and repeated currencydevaluations). Instead, China’s manufacturing PMI troughed in Q3 2015 and hasrebounded by 7 points over the past 15 months, rising close to a six-year high.
This has allowed the European sectors most sensitive to China’s macro cycle