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Metals &Mining Alert-Daily prices and news:High prices boost base metals output in China

类型:行业研究  机构:德意志银行   研究员:Jorge Beristain,Chris Terry  日期:2017-03-21
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Industrials (/lb): aluminum $0.86 (+1.5%), copper $2.66 (+0.8%), lead $1.02(+1.1%), molybdenum $6.80 (+0.0%); nickel $4.63 (-0.2%); zinc $1.27 (+2.1%);Precious (/oz): gold $1,220 (+1.7%), silver $17.35 (+2.8%); Steel (/mt): ChinaHRC $561 (+0.5%), SHFE Rebar $525 (+1.2%), MB Scrap Index $294 (+0.0%);Bulks: iron ore (/dmt) $91 (+2.7%), coking coal (/mt) $162 (-0.5%), freight (BCI)2,136 (+10.7%); Energy: Brent (/bbl) $51.80 (+1.8%), WTI (/bbl) $48.86 (+2.4%),natural gas (/mmBtu) $2.98 (+1.5%), thermal coal (/t) $82 (+0.9%).

    China’s base metals output for Jan-Feb rises as smelters ramped upproduction, driven by rising prices. Aluminum output rose 15.6% YoY to 5.5mt,copper increased 6.7% YoY to 1.4mt whereas zinc and lead rose 4.4% and7.4% to 982kt and 837kt, respectively. Iron ore surged 15.3% to 184mt assteelmakers raised output. (Reuters)Tangshan, the steelmaking centre in China’s Hebei province has revisedcapacity elimination targets for 2017 to 5.7mtpa of pig iron (previously9.3mtpa) and 10.1mtpa of crude steel (previously 8.6mtpa). Meanwhile,Jiangsu province recently increased its capacity elimination plan to 6.5-8mtpafrom 6.5mtpa. With no specific explanation given for changes, elimination ofillegal capacity and industry consolidation is expected to meet targets. (SBB)Venezuela heads for fourth consecutive year of recession with rising risks ofhyperinflation and balance of payment pressure and refinancing uncertainty.

    Polarization, shortages of essential goods, violence and repression couldexacerbate social unrest which could be supportive for gold price. Venezuela isthird largest supplier of oil to U.S., accounting for 9% of imports in 2016. (DB)Crude steel output from members of China Iron and Steel Association (CISA)rebounds to 1.74mtpd during February 21-28, a 3% increase from prior 10-dayperiod due to recovering seasonal demand and rise in long product prices.

    Finished steel inventories at mills fell 8% sequentially to 13m tons as of 2/28 (-5% YoY). CISA estimated China total daily output at 2.3mtpd (+3% seq). (SBB)US Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) spot price rose $4/st WoW to $635/st on 3/15. HRand Cold-Rolled sheet spread widened to $218/st (+$12/st WoW). NYMEXDecember 2017 forward HRC price rose $5/st WoW to $600/st. (CRU, CME).

    Vale close to competing transaction with Mitsui to sell its interest in Moatizecoal mine and Nacala Logistics Corridor. Company expects to receive ~$770mupon completion and raise up to $2.7bn on closing of project financing. Mitsuireserves the right to transfer interest back to Vale if signing of project financingis not achieved till December 2017. Deal to close by March 2017. (Company).

    Nucor to raise US wire rod prices for new shipments, effective April 1. Lowcarbonrod prices to be hiked by $45/st, while high-carbon rod prices by $60st.

    This mirrors moves by Keystone Steel & Wire and Gerdau Long Steel. Hikeattributed to increase in raw material costs due to jump in scrap prices. (SBB).

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