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Sunway:Positive profit alert and improving 20172018outlook

类型:公司研究  机构:德意志银行   研究员:德意志银行研究所  日期:2017-03-28
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Positive profit alert for 1Q17

    Sunway has issued an positive profit warning, expecting 1Q17 net profit torange RMB190mn-RMB210mn (up 160% to 187% YoY), including an one-timesubsidy of RMB60mn. Excluding this subsidy, net profit would have grown78%-105% YoY, still an impressive figure (vs. our previous estimate of 80%core EPS growth). The firm attributes its strength in market share gains to theMacBook/iPad antenna and wireless charging module for Samsung, as well asrising contributions from EMI shields, acoustics and other new products.

    Antenna business: multiple strong growth drivers in 2017 and beyond

    In terms of its core business (antenna), Sunway views the iPad/MacBook Wi-Fi/BT antenna and Samsung’s three-in-one antenna (wireless charging, NFC,and Samsung Pay) as the key growth drivers. The ASP of MacBook antenna isas high as USD10 (vs. sub-USD1 for the iPhone), as special designs are neededto hide the antenna inside a hinge. It expects the antenna business to growmarket share from ~15% in 2016 to 40%+ in 2017 and 50%+ in 2018. The ASPof the three-in-one antenna (for Galaxy S/Note series) is around USD4, andSunway expects to grow market share from ~10% in 2016 to 30%-35% in2017. Sunway believes Samsung’s mid-end phones will adopt this high-ASPcomponent in late 2017 or the coming years.

    Market share gains in EMI shields and acoustics from a low base

    For new products, Sunway expects sales from EMI shields (mainly for theiPhone) to double to ~RMB600mn, as it will supply more pieces of EMI shieldsfor use inside the new iPhone. For acoustics (less than 3% of 2016 sales), Sonywas the main client in 2016. Sunway expects acoustic sales to grow 100%+YoY, as it has won more new projects from Chinese OEMs (Huawei andGionee). In addition, it is at the qualification process with Oppo and Vivo, andhopes to penetrate into their supply chain in 2H17.

    Valuation and investment risks

    We maintain Buy and raise 2017/2018E EPS by 17%/26% to factor in potentialASP increases (due to wireless charging and design change), market sharegains (in Samsung/Chinese OEMs) and rising contributions from EMI shieldsand acoustics. We raise TP from RMB29 to RMB36 (still 1x PEG, in line with Asharepeers, or 35x forward PER). Risks: share losses and price competition.

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